Top 12 Holiday Toy Predictions, Wal-Mart Toy Price Slashing and Worries About Recalled Toys Top This Week's Holiday Toy News

Despite the recent recall of more than 20 million toys made in China, toy merchants claim they are not overly concerned that parents will be reluctant to fulfill their children‘s wishes of holiday toys - even those made in China. Toy companies must be somewhat nervous that this indeed proves to be true as we approach the holiday buying season, with an estimated 80 percent of toys sold in the US are made in and imported from China.

More of a concern for toy merchants coming into the holiday season might be the economy. The months of November and December account for an estimated 50 percent of retailers' annual profits and sales. Although the toy industry is typically somewhat immune from economic troubles (because parents will cut back on spending for themselves rather than their children), The National Retail Federation recently (NCR) estimated that 2007 total holiday sales will grow a mere 4 percent. This is somewhat weaker than last year's 4.6 percent increase, thanks in part to more Americans with less spending money due to a housing market slowdown and credit market crunch.

Toy industry expert Jim Silver (editor of Toy Wishes magazine) said that the industry is seeing more holiday demand for tech-centered toys, those that can be connected to the Internet of television. Silver also predicts that toys tied into popular Hollywood television shows or movies, like Hannah Montana, Transformers or High School Musical are sure to be hits. Silver predicts that parents will snap up the hottest must-have items during the upcoming holiday season, despite the economy and concerns over toys made from China.

Silver released his annual "Hot Dozen" list on Tuesday and predicted what he feels will be the most popular toys this holiday season. What items made the list? They were:

American Idol Talent Challenge;
Aqua Dots Super Studio;
Barbie Girls (MP3 player);
Eye Clops;
Guitar Hero III: Legends Of Rock;
Hannah Montana Singing Dolls And Pop Star Stage;
Nerf N-Strike Disc Shot;
Rubik’s Revolution;
Smart Cycle;
Spin Master;
Spotz;
Swypeout Online Battle Racing;
Transformers Arm Blasters & Transformers Movie Ultimate Bumblebee.

Wal-Mart stores has already fired it’s first strike in the retailer toy wars, announcing on Monday that it would offer deep pricing discounts ( 10 to 50 percent off) on some popular toys for the holiday shopping season. Examples of the savings include a Tonka Truck (discounted to $19.76 from $27.44), Kid Tough Digital Camera (originally $64.88 now $54.88) and the Are You Smarter Than A 5th Grader? game (discounted to $12.88 from $18.96.)

While they were at it, Wal-Mart announced it’s own Top 12 Toys For Christmas (some of which overlapped with Silver’s list. Making the cut were:

Air Hogs Havoc Heli;
Aqua Dots Super Studio; (also on Toy Wishes List)
Are You Smarter than a 5th Grader Game;
FurReal Squawkers Parrot;
Kid Tough Digital Camera;
Little Mommy Real Loving Baby Doll Smart Cycle;
Littlest Pet Shop Paws Off Electronic Diary;
New Elmo;
Power Tour Electric Guitar;
Razor Ripstik Caster;
and
Spider-Man 3 Movie Action Figure.

We will be discussing and highlighting some of these toys in coming posts.